China's Defence Minister, Liang Guanglie, has reaffirmed Beijing's military alliance with Pyongyang, and he has been quoted as saying the relationship was ''sealed with blood'' during the Korean War.
The comments appear to undermine efforts by the US President, Barack Obama, in Beijing last week to enlist China's support for nuclear non-proliferation efforts against North Korea.
They follow a series of Chinese overtures to North Korea and other nations that Washington regards as ''problem states'', including Sudan and Iran.
It is often a very forgotten point that China was North Korea's principal ally during the Korean War over 50 years ago, and that the United States (under the banner of the United Nations) committed a great number of troops to South Korea. This proxy war fought between the United States and China is a lasting tale of what a conflict between the two nations today would cost, and why a regime like North Korea is a likely consequence of any sort of action.
China may be more on the fence about its relationship with its military dictatorship younger brother that it accidentally brought into life, but one should indeed expect them to always be on the good side of the DPRK, regardless of the international costs. The consequences of a regime failure in North Korea are dire, and given that the line between North and South Korea would become something of a disaster if the regime disintegrated and the populace attempted to flee, one can expect the situation on the Chinese border to be worse. The absolute last thing China wants, probably next to a nuclear exchange, is millions of starving North Korean refugees fleeing into northeastern China. China already has a massive migrant worker population, and the addition of millions of refugees who do not speak the language and are educationally brainwashed will be a huge political quagmire.
Having to work out an exchange with South Korea in this case would take months, and the international response would bring pressure to allow foreign NGO's into China in similar ways to the Sichuan earthquake last year. Foreign NGOs have been noted for doing more than disaster relief, including introducing voting methods for assisting in allocating resources and settling disputes. Their presence will also deeply disturb normal economic activity in what is a chief oil, coal, and many other raw materials region.
Long story short, China has no interest in seeing the North Korean/DPRK regime collapse. Lets hope they can continue to play both sides of the coin, because China will never be on the side of destabilization of the Korean peninsula for any ends.
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